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Forums - Sales - October 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

October 2026 Circana (NPD) covers the four-week period from October 4 to 31 and will be released on November 19 around 6:00 am PT / 9:00 am ET / 2:00 pm UK.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

  1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
  2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
  3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000
  4. [#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for October 2025:

  1. NS2 - 328K
  2. PS5 - 211K
  3. XS - 75K
  4. NS - 52K

VGChartz US estimates for September 2026:

  1. PS5 - 259K
  2. NS2 - 238K
  3. XS - 70K
  4. NS - 35K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

  • PS5+XS - GTA6 buildup
  • PS5+XS - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
  • NS2 - Switch Sports Resort
  • NS2 - Zelda 40th Anniversary console
  • XS - Gears of War: E-Day

Upcoming release dates for Circana reports:

  • October (10.4-10.31) - Nov 19
  • November (11.1-11.28) - Dec 17
  • December (11.29-1.2.27) - Jan 21, 2027


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Around the Network

  • PS5 - 220K
  • NS2 - 200K
  • XS - 60K
  • NS - 30K



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Oh nice data comes out on GTA launch date. I know it will just be for October data, but I wonder if we will get any thoughts or input.

Predictions:

  1. NS2 - 295K
  2. PS5 - 310K
  3. XS - 50K
  4. NS - 30K


PS5 - 237K
NS2 - 215K
XS - 75K
NS - 24K



Second consecutive time that circana report releasing on a thursday, like famitsu.
Or i'm missing a pattern there?



Around the Network
tak13 said:

Second consecutive time that circana report releasing on a thursday, like famitsu.
Or i'm missing a pattern there?

It seems like Thursday is the new day it will release on. It used to always come out on a Wednesday. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

It seems like Thursday is the new day it will release on. It used to always come out on a Wednesday. 

It is releasing exactly on the same day as GTA 6.

At least we are getting the fiscal quarter report tomorrow from Nintendo right? And what about Sony?



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
trunkswd said:

It seems like Thursday is the new day it will release on. It used to always come out on a Wednesday. 

It is releasing exactly on the same day as GTA 6.

At least we are getting the fiscal quarter report tomorrow from Nintendo right? And what about Sony?

Both are coming out tomorrow. Probably at the same time. I'll try to stay up late tonight to get the articles posted. Machina will probably do the adjustments while I sleep. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.